StatGuru finds +EV edges for bettors who shop the number
We run every matchup 20,000 times through a predictive model built on real box-score and matchup data, then scan sportsbook lines around the clock for spots where our numbers diverge from the book's implied probability. No generated picks, no gut calls, and every result is graded in public against the real final score.
Every result measured the only way that matters — against what actually happened, not a backtest.
Built for +EV and line-shopping bettors — not parlay chasers.
20,000
Sims per game
38-32
Suggested plays record
2
Leagues live
See StatGuru in 60 seconds
A quick walkthrough of the dashboard, Top Picks, and the Hit-Rate Explorer.
Kyle Leahy — Strikeouts O4.5
PIT @ STL
77.7%
Model probability
43.5%
Book implied
60%
Real hit rate (L5)
Kyle Leahy's last 5 games vs. this exact line — real results, not a projection.
21.8%
K%
7.2%
BB%
.373
wOBA vs L
.263
wOBA vs R
Today's +EV picks, graded publicly
A free daily sample from our predictive model, tracked and graded publicly.
Away ML
TOR @ PHX · +345
Model probability 45.4% vs. the book's implied 22.5% — a +22.9-point edge is why this made today's list.
Under 9.5
BAL @ ATH · +101
Model probability 74.9% vs. the book's implied 49.8% — a +25.1-point edge is why this made today's list.
Kyle Leahy — Strikeouts O4.5
PIT @ STL · +129
Model probability 84.6% vs. the book's implied 43.7% — a +40.9-point edge is why this made today's list.
21.8%
K%
7.2%
BB%
.373
wOBA vs L
.263
wOBA vs R
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Frequently asked
How is every pick graded?
Every pick is selected once, before the game starts, and graded against the real final result — never revised, never deleted. Wins and losses both stay visible.
What sportsbooks do you cover?
DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers, Bovada, MyBookie, LowVig, BetOnline, and William Hill.
How is this different from a picks service?
There are no generated picks and no gut calls here — it's a statistical model that flags where its own probability differs from the sportsbook's price, and shows you the math behind every one.
What is +EV?
A bet is +EV (positive expected value) when its real probability of hitting is higher than the sportsbook's price implies — meaning if you made the same bet enough times, you'd profit on average. That's what the model looks for: not certainty, a measurable edge over the book's price.
Who built StatGuru?
See the About page for how the model works end to end — real box-score and matchup data in, a full probability distribution out, checked against the market around the clock.